President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud announced the second phase of the military offensive against al-Shabaab in March 2023. The aim of the offensive is to regain control over the remaining parts of the country. The first phase, which began in August 2022 was focused on the central part of the country and was significantly successful owing to the support of the clan militias from the Hawiye clan.
But, the Somali security forces were not able to guard the newly liberated areas, and al-Shabaab maintained their bases because of this weakness. They were able to launch attacks against the government troops. The current federal government is expecting decreased support from the clans in the south during the second phase and hence has sought support from its neighboring states as their troops are already present in Somalia under the African Union Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS). Djibouti, Ethiopia, and Kenya have reportedly promised over 30,000 soldiers to support the offensive in the coming months.
While the focus of al-Shabaab during the second phase has been on Hirshabelle state and continued attacks in Banadir, the vulnerabilities of Hirshabelle state have forced Somali security forces to stay focused on Middle Shabelle and Hiiraan regions rather than expanding to Jubaland and Southwest states. Between 18 March and 14 April, 19 political violence events involving al-Shabaab have been recorded in Hirshabelle state, and the total number of fatalities during these violent attacks was recorded to be 145 persons. Close to 70% of these incidents were remote violence events, which implies an increase of 30% compared to the past month.
The political differences between the federal government and some of the member states such as Jubaland and Puntland, pose a risk to the successful implementation of the second phase operations. But, the support from the neighboring states and the continued focus on regaining territory and building military capacity, can make it possible for the federal government to succeed in flushing out al-Shabaab from the remaining parts of the country under its control.
