The security situation in Somalia is deteriorating rapidly as Al-Shabaab militants continue their advance towards Mogadishu. The group’s recent incursions into multiple areas near the capital signal a growing confidence and a potentially decisive shift in their military strategy. The Somali government, already struggling to maintain control, faces an increasingly dire challenge as the risk of state collapse becomes more real.
Why is Al-Shabaab Gaining Ground?
Al-Shabaab’s recent operations appear to be both psychological and strategic. The militants have infiltrated several locations around Mogadishu, aiming to instill fear, project strength, and undermine the federal government. While the group publicly claims it does not intend to harm civilians, its goal remains the same—establishing an Islamic state governed by Sharia law. The Somali National Army (SNA), despite years of training and international support, has struggled to mount an effective defense. Reports of soldiers refusing to fight and widespread desertions highlight the low morale within the security forces.
One of the biggest challenges for the government is the lack of foreign military intervention. Unlike in 2007, when Ethiopian and African Union troops played a crucial role in repelling Al-Shabaab, the current administration is largely on its own. American security assistance has dwindled, while Ethiopia and Kenya have shown little interest in direct involvement. With the African Union mission (AUSSOM) set to downsize its presence, Somalia is left with fewer options.
What Can President Mohamud Do?
President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud faces a critical moment. His administration must urgently unify regional leaders and clan factions to form a stronger front against Al-Shabaab. A more inclusive transitional government, replacing corrupt and ineffective officials, could help rally domestic and international support. Additionally, securing continued military aid and strengthening the elite Danab Special Forces Brigade may be crucial to preventing a total collapse.
However, time is running out. Al-Shabaab’s steady encirclement of Mogadishu suggests that without immediate action, Somalia could face a major security disaster. Hope alone is not a strategy—decisive leadership and bold reforms are needed to turn the tide.
Source- https://x.com/rabdianalyst/status/1902660435305762894?s=48
